Sarasota market hits highest sales figure since March 2007

June 26, 2008

The following press release was sent to local media on June 26 at 11:00 a.m.

Sarasota market hits highest sales figure since March 2007

Home sales in the Sarasota MLS for May 2008 stood at 627 - the highest level in 14 months, and approximately 92 percent higher than the sales in January 2008. In 2008, sales have been increasing each month, possibly due to the influence of the new property tax portability law enacted in late January. Sales have climbed from 329 in January to 423 in February, 514 in March and 567 in April.

"This year, the Sarasota real estate market has been a beacon of hope as the state and national markets continue to struggle," said Helen Sosso, 2008 SAR President. "I believe our local agents have embraced the concept of a buyers' market, and educated sellers on the realities of pricing. We still have advantageous interest rates, and our communities' natural and cultural amenities always attract buyers."

The May 2008 report continued to reflect strength in pending sales, which stood at 692 - the second highest level since June 2006. Last month's pending sales stood at 756, the highest in the period. In May 2007 only 541 pending sales were reported. Like closed sales, pending sales have been edging upward since December 2007, when there were only 374 pending sales reported. Pending sales reflect contracts executed by buyers and sellers, and indicate more closings in upcoming months and an improving market in the early summer months.

Inventory levels were lower in May 2008 for the third month, and are the lowest they have been since February 2006. Still, with 9,500 single family and 5,100 condos listed, buyers have a huge selection of more affordably priced housing to select from. The reduced inventory is a combination of fewer properties being listed, and increasing sales numbers. As the inventory continues to decline, the market will come back to more balance. As we approach equilibrium, the buyer's market we've been experiencing will be gone, and price appreciation will creep back into the market.

In general, the Sarasota MLS statistics show a rebound throughout 2008 - every month seeing stronger numbers than the month before. In fact, Sarasota statistics have been stronger in recent months than sales in the Miami market, which is a much bigger geographic and demographic area.

In the local Sarasota market, we have seen the trend already beginning toward lower inventories, higher sales, and a leveling of prices after several months of declines. The May figures reflect this new reality.

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Approval Is Near for Bill to Help U.S. Homeowners

By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN
Published: June 25, 2008

WASHINGTON — With sinking home values continuing to drag down the economy, Congress is poised to approve a huge package of housing legislation, including a refinancing program aimed at rescuing hundreds of thousands of homeowners in danger of foreclosure and the most sweeping government overhaul of mortgage financing since the New Deal.

Lawmakers moved with increasing urgency on Tuesday after a closely watched housing index showed prices nationally had declined in April by more than 15 percent from a year earlier. Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, threatened to keep the Senate in session through the Fourth of July holiday to finish the housing measure, if needed. The House has already approved similar legislation.

The centerpiece of the Senate package is a rescue-refinancing plan aimed at stemming the tide of more than 8,000 new foreclosures a day that lenders are filing across the country. The plan would allow distressed borrowers and their lenders to stem losses by allowing qualified owners to refinance into more affordable, 30-year fixed-rate loans with a federal guarantee.

The legislation would also provide benefits for first-time buyers, who would receive a refundable tax credit of up to $8,000, or 10 percent of the value of a home, on purchases of unoccupied housing.

As part of a regulatory overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance giants, the bill would permanently increase to $625,000, from $417,000, the limit on loans they can purchase from lenders in expensive housing markets, making it easier for borrowers to obtain mortgages at discounted rates. Despite a presidential veto threat, the package received overwhelming bipartisan support, clearing by 83 to 9 a crucial procedural vote in the Senate on Tuesday morning.

Final passage of the bill was snagged temporarily in the Senate Tuesday evening because of a fight over renewable energy tax credits. Still, major supporters of the bill said they hoped it would be completed before for the holiday.

“There’s a great desire to act,” said Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts, the bill’s main author in the House. “We’re just not there yet.”

The bill would provide $150 million to expand counseling for borrowers to prevent foreclosure and would establish stricter disclosure rules to require lenders to make plain the maximum monthly payment for a borrower with an adjustable rate loan.

The bill also establishes an Affordable Housing Trust Fund, to be financed by $500 million to $900 million in fees from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The fund will cover any expenses related to the foreclosure rescue plan for three years, and will be used to create affordable rental housing.

Under the refinancing plan, only borrowers seeking to remain in their primary home would be eligible. Lenders would first have to agree to cut the principal balance of loans to roughly 85 percent of each property’s current value.

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Home Sales May Rise Modestly Before Broader Upturn in Second Half Of 2008

WASHINGTON, June 09, 2008

A modest gain in the level of home sales is possible over the next couple months, and an improvement is forecast for the second half of this year as more buyers are able to access affordable mortgages, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.3 percent to 88.2 from a reading of 83.0 in March. It’s the highest index since last October, but remains 13.1 percent lower than April 2007 when it stood at 101.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said pending sales contracts have picked up notably in areas undergoing significant price drops. “Bargain hunters have entered the market en masse, especially in areas that have experienced double-digit price declines, but it’s unclear if they are investors or owner-occupants,” he said. “Sharp price reductions are leading to a quicker discovery of price equilibrium points. The West is already seeing year-over-year gains in pending contracts.”

The PHSI in the West rose 8.3 percent to 98.8 in April and is 4.0 percent higher than April 2007. In the Midwest, the index jumped 13.0 percent to 83.7 in April but remains 13.1 percent below a year ago. The index in the South increased 4.6 percent to 88.8 but is 22.5 percent below April 2007. In the Northeast, the index declined 1.9 percent in April to 79.3 and is 12.2 percent below a year ago.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the market may be breaking its holding pattern. “It appears that more buyers are realizing they can take advantage of a favorable combination of mortgage interest rates, home prices and family income,” he said. “Overall affordability conditions are the best we’ve seen since the middle of the housing boom in 2004, but with far more choices and much less pressure than buyers experienced four years ago to make an investment in their future. Recent declines in mortgage rates on conforming jumbo loans and a return to sound but not overly stringent underwriting standards will permit more people to qualify for a loan.”

NAR’s housing affordability index has been trending up this year and is projected to rise 15 percentage points to 128.0 for all of 2008.

“Although mortgage interest rates will remain historically favorable, they will start to steadily inch up,” Yun said. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage should rise gradually to 6.3 percent by the end of this year, and then hold at that level for most of 2009.
Yun said the underlying fundamentals point to a pent-up demand. “Home sales are at about the same level as they were 10 years ago, yet the population has grown by 25 million people and we have over 10 million more jobs,” he said. “The housing market has been underperforming by historical standards, partly because buyers were hampered by mortgage availability issues, but that’s improved and an upturn is more likely. On the other hand, it’s unclear what role consumer confidence will play in the coming months.”

Existing-home sales should increase from an annual pace of 5.05 million in the second quarter to 5.83 million in the fourth quarter. For all of this year, existing-home sales are expected to total 5.40 million, and then rise 6.3 percent to 5.74 million in 2009. “Sales gains will be greatest in areas that underwent sharp price declines,” Yun said.
After unprecedented home price declines in the first half of the year, many markets can anticipate stabilizing price trends in the second half. The aggregate median existing-home price is likely to decline 8.4 percent in the first half of this year, and then begin to stabilize in the second half before rising 4.4 percent next year to $213,900. “Policymakers need to be attentive to the fact that many homeowners have seen a reduction in housing equity, or are in an ‘underwater’ situation. More needs to be done on the policy front to alleviate hardships and bring fence-sitters back into the marketplace,” Yun said.

A great mix of conditions continues around the country. “We’re seeing healthy price gains in moderately priced areas like Erie, Pa., and Corpus Christi, Texas, and double-digit gains in others,” Yun said. “Our most recent data shows sales rising strongly from a year ago in some areas that experienced sharp price drops, including Detroit and Las Vegas.”

New-home sales will probably fall 31.7 percent to 529,000 in 2008 before rising 12.5 percent to 595,000 next year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are projected to drop 27.2 percent to 987,000 this year, and then slip 0.6 percent to 980,000 in 2009.

“Rising construction costs will provide less room for price cuts on new homes,” Yun said. The median new-home price is forecast to decline 3.1 percent to $239,500 in 2008, and then rise 5.4 percent next year to $252,400.

Yun sees an improving economy. Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.7 percent in 2008 and 2.0 percent next year. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 5.3 percent this year and 5.6 percent in 2009.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is expected to be 3.6 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income should grow 1.4 percent in 2008 and 2.5 percent next year.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. View

Existing-home sales for May will be released June 26; the next Forecast / Pending Home Sales Index will be released July 8.

Source: Walter Molony, wmolony@realtors.org
Washington, D.C. June 9, 2008

WEDU "Speaking of Women's Health Conference"

Women's Event Moving So More Can Participate
Sarasota Herald Tribune, Sunday June 8, 2008
Yvette Kimm

Published Sunday, June 8, 2008 at 4:30 a.m.
Last updated Sunday, June 8, 2008 at 2 a.m.

For the past five years, hundreds of women have languished on an enormous waiting list to attend one of the biggest women's events in the area.

IF YOU GO

What: WEDU's sixth annual Speaking of Women's Health Conference.

When: 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. June 21.

Where: Manatee Civic Center, 1 Haben Blvd. Palmetto.

Cost: $50, and a limited number of tickets remain available; includes a continental breakfast, formal luncheon catered by Michael's on East, canvas gift bag containing more than $100 worth of items, health screenings and seminars.

Why: Event proceeds will help underwrite programming of the PBS station, which serves 16 counties in West Central Florida.

Special presentation: Two local nonprofit organizations, Girls Inc. and Mothers Helping Mothers, will receive a WEDU Trinity Grant for their contributions to the health and well-being of local women.

Reservations and information: (813) 254-9338, Ext. 2241, or visit wedu.org.
Because of its popularity, the usually sold-out WEDU's Speaking of Women's Health Conference left the women waiting for an opportunity to buy tickets to the daylong health and networking conference.

Responding to their disappointed cries, the PBS station moved this year's June 21 event to the much larger Manatee Civic Center to accommodate more conference fans.

"After eight sellouts in Tampa and five sellouts in Sarasota, we are bringing our popular Speaking of Women's Health event to Manatee County for the first time," WEDU president and CEO Dick Lobo said. "With the larger facility, we actually have some tickets available."

The event has been one of the largest women-only conferences in Sarasota and Manatee area. Those attending are informed and entertained by local and national health experts.

"Speaking of Women's Health has been educating, empowering and inspiring more than 500 women each year to make smart choices about their health and wellness and that of their families," Lobo said.

This year's theme is "Discover Your Everyday Super Heroes," which will challenge the women to be a superhero to others and discover their own superheroes.

There will be two keynote speakers, Cammy Dierking and Christine Cashen.

Dierking, a TV anchor, marathon runner, mother and sister, will present "Discover Your Everyday Superheroes" with a story of love and friendship.

Cashen, a former university admissions officer, corporate trainer and broadcaster, will present "Extreme Humor Makeover," an upbeat message of self-empowerment.

"It's going to be the best makeover you can have," Cashen said from her Dallas home. "It's less stress and more fun."

Having a makeover is always empowering, she said, and adding humor to the makeover produces a delightful change of attitude to any situation.

"My whole goal is to stop global whining, and you do that by taking charge of your life," Cashen said. "Stop whining about what you can't change and do something about what you can."

Cashen said she believes the weight of the world falls onto women's shoulders, "and the weight is easier to bear when you have good outlook on life. People lose their sense of humor during stressful times, and I will help people eliminate stress and get in touch with their sense of humor."

Speaking of Women's Health will also include 15 break-out sessions on a variety of subjects, including cholesterol, skin care, joint pain, stress management and memory.

As an added feature, Sarasota Memorial Hospital is sponsoring the appearance of its da Vinci Surgical System, a robotic surgical platform that allows physicians to perform complex procedures through a series of tiny incisions.

"This will probably be the only chance people will have to see this robot close up," WEDU's Jim Scilligo said. "It's an extraordinary opportunity for the participants."


Contact Yvette Kimm at yvettekimm@aol.com.

OPINION - The Housing Crisis Is Over

By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX
May 6, 2008; Page A23

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.

Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.

Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.

The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.

In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.

The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.

Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.

Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.

Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.

For the full article, click on http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html?mod=WSJBlog